Showing posts with label To Disentangle Confusing Terms or Discourses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label To Disentangle Confusing Terms or Discourses. Show all posts

2017-05-28

7: Are Inconvertible Banknotes Really Claims Against the Central Bank?, Revisited

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Inconvertible Banknotes Are Certainly Claims Against the Central Bank

-Hypothesizer

I'm already fully convinced that banknotes are debts for the central bank. That's the essence of money. Money is IOUs. If someone thinks that printing banknotes directly increases the wealth of the central bank, I assure you, that's wrong. Banknotes held by the central bank are just pieces of paper.

-Rebutter

Yes. That's a requisite, but somehow widely neglected piece of knowledge among Earthians.

-Hypothesizer

When the central bank offers a banknote of 100 dollars as a IOU to a party, and the party accepts the IOU in exchange for an asset, a contract is concluded, and the central bank owes 100 dollars to the party. The banknote is the proof of the contract, and before the contract is concluded, the banknote is just a piece of paper.

-Rebutter

In fact, in the central bank's balance sheet, banknotes handed to the public are counted as debts, which corresponds to that nature of banknotes.

-Hypothesizer

So, if someone thinks that printing money directly creates wealth, I repeat, that's wrong.

-Rebutter

Money is IOUs. Any IOU takes effects only when a contract is concluded between two parties and the IOU is accepted by the creditor. Writing IOUs by oneself without anyone accepting any contract is just practicing penmanship.

-Hypothesizer

I heard someone compare printing a banknote with painting a picture, but there is a critical difference between the two. When a picture has been painted at a low cost, say 100 dollars, and is valued at, say 1 million dollars, the picture has the value for anyone.

-Rebutter

Someone might not like the picture, and not value it at 1 million dollars.

-Hypothesizer

Even if he or she doesn't like it personally, he or she will gladly accept it if he or she knows that it can be sold at markets at 1 million dollars.

-Rebutter

That's true.

-Hypothesizer

On the other hand, a IOU isn't something valuable for everybody. For the burrower, it's just a liability. If the borrower takes back the IOU by repaying the debt, it becomes just a piece of paper.

-Rebutter

Possessing a IOU issued by oneself isn't an asset; it's zero.

-Hypothesizer

That's the same with a bankbook. It isn't something valuable for everybody. It is valuable for the depositor, but is a liability for the bank. For other people, it's just a unentertaining, uninformative, worthless book.

-Rebutter

Banknotes and deposits are both money, and share that essential characteristic of money as IOUs.

What Can We Claim for Inconvertible Banknotes?, Revisited

-Hypothesizer

What I'm not fully convinced is what we can claim from the central bank for inconvertible banknotes.

-Rebutter

A inconvertible banknote's being a IOU means that the acceptor of the IOU can claim something from the issuer. What's that something?

-Hypothesizer

Our previous discussion wasn't satisfactory, and my better description is this.

A commercial bank accepts a inconvertible banknote as a IOU from the central bank. The commercial bank can claim assets from the central bank in exchange for the banknote.

-Rebutter

Assets such as government bonds?

-Hypothesizer

For example, yes, but they can be anything.

-Rebutter

I see. The central bank stopped to guarantee to give gold in exchange for banknotes, but it didn't stop giving assets in exchange for banknotes.

However, gold or not, that 'guaranteeing' part is crucial for the execution of the obligations of issuers of IOUs, isn't it? The central bank doesn't guarantee to accept exchanges on demand.

-Hypothesizer

. . . Yes, that's true. That's the special characteristic of inconvertible banknotes. But when the central bank is willing to sell assets, it certainly accepts banknotes as the payment. That is, the central bank won't accept an exchange not because it doesn't acknowledge banknotes, but because it doesn't want to sell assets right now.

-Rebutter

Still, the central bank isn't guaranteeing anything. Guaranteeing is an essential part of the obligations of the issuer of IOUs, I presume?

-Hypothesizer

Well, maybe, the central bank is guaranteeing to accept exchanges eventually, if not on demand or by fixed maturities.

-Rebutter

Such concept as an obligation without time limit is a fraud, I say. An obligation that doesn't need to be fulfilled forever isn't any obligation.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm. . . . From a practical point of view, it's important that the government guarantees to accept banknotes as tax payments. But banknotes are IOUs by the central bank, not by the government. I don't know how theoretically that explains the execution of the obligations of the central bank as the IOUs issuer.

-Rebutter

I agree. That must be important, but I haven't met any satisfactory explanation of how that relates to the execution of the obligations of the central bank as the IOUs issuer.

-Hypothesizer

After all, 'inconvertible banknote' doesn't seem to be a well-thought-out concept. . . . It's typical of Earthians to adopt such a phony thing as a staple of their lives. I say that the inconvertible banknote is phony not because it's just a piece of paper (IOUs are naturally pieces of paper) but because the issuer of the IOU doesn't clarify what it owes! Can such an IOU exist?

-Rebutter

Well, . . . after all, it's a matter of whether the receiver accepts it as a IOU, although it's a bizarre phenomenon.

-Hypothesizer

It's like, "I owe you." "Do you owe me what?" "Well, . . . I don't know." "OK. I will accept it."

-Rebutter

. . .

-Hypothesizer

Anyway, the commercial bank can claim assets from the central bank in exchange for banknotes, at least eventually, not if on demand. But what are inconvertible banknotes for ordinary people?

-Rebutter

What do you mean by 'ordinary people'? Non-geniuses, non-capitalists, or non-foot-fetishists?

-Hypothesizer

People who aren't banks. People who don't make transactions with the central bank, including companies. While they can't claim anything directly from the central bank, why are inconvertible banknotes valued by ordinary people? That's the question.

-Rebutter

I see.

-Hypothesizer

Banknotes can be passed around commercial banks, and they are valuable for any commercial bank.

-Rebutter

That will be so.

-Hypothesizer

When banknotes are passed to ordinary people, ordinary people can't directly claim anything from the central bank because the central bank doesn't deal with them. However, as banknotes are valuable for commercial banks, commercial banks will gladly take banknotes. So, knowing that, ordinary people will appreciate banknotes as something that can be used against commercial banks, and will begin to use banknotes as a means of transactions among them.

-Rebutter

That will be the mechanism by which banknotes become appreciated in the public. That is, the appreciation of the value of inconvertible banknotes has propagated to the public from commercial banks.

Why Does the Banknote, Just a Piece of Paper, Have the Value?

-Hypothesizer

There is a question, "Why does the banknote, just a piece of paper, have the value?" Usually, the answer is as "Because people believe in the value." However, let's try to give a different answer.

-Rebutter

Which is?

-Hypothesizer

The banknote is really just a piece of paper, objectively.

It's a IOU. It's 100 dollars for the creditor and -100 dollars for the burrower. The net worth for the whole is zero. It isn't variable for the whole, except as a piece of paper.

-Rebutter

That corresponds to the fact that it's just a piece of paper.

-Hypothesizer

As ordinary people usual don't see it from the central bank's viewpoint, they tend to think that it's objectively valuable. However, that isn't so. Objectively, it's no more valuable than a piece of paper.

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2017-05-14

6: How Is Helicopter Money Related to Monetary Financing

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What Is Monetary Financing?

-Hypothesizer

I see some news articles or other documents about the risk of helicopter money, but what confuses me is that stories turn to monetary financing without due explanations as though helicopter money self-evidently comes to monetary financing. Does helicopter money necessarily mean monetary financing? Or does monetary financing necessarily mean helicopter money?

-Rebutter

I think, the answers are no, to both the questions.

-Hypothesizer

The aim of helicopter money should be to give away money to the public, not to the government. For example, if the central bank literally scatters money from a helicopter, it has nothing to do with the government finance.

-Rebutter

Right.

-Hypothesizer

Then, why does monetary financing make an appearance on the stage as though helicopter money means directly monetary financing?

-Rebutter

The central bank won't literally scatter money from a helicopter because it can't deliver money fairly or to intended entities that way. In fact, it doesn't have any appropriate means to deliver money to intended entities. So, it delivers money through the government.

-Hypothesizer

Then, the central bank gives away money to the government not as a purpose, but as a means.

-Rebutter

Yes. That's because the government has means to deliver money to the public in more controlled ways, for example, tax cuts.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm, . . . so, helicopter money doesn't intend to pass money to the government, but in reality, it most likely has to pass money to the government.

-Rebutter

At least, that's the way being usually considered to deliver helicopter money.

-Hypothesizer

The central bank delivers money to the government by buying government bonds, right?

-Rebutter

As far as I know, that seems to be the principal scheme being considered.

-Hypothesizer

But buying government bonds isn't giving away money; it's just exchanging money with government bonds.

-Rebutter

Monetary financing means that the central bank directly buys government bonds, but it isn't helicopter money itself: the government doesn't just get money; the government gets the debt too.

-Hypothesizer

I heard an insistence as the government doesn't have to repay debts or pay interests to the central bank because the central bank is a subsidiary. That isn't correct, is it?

-Rebutter

Is that so on the Bias planet? I don't think so. Independence of the central bank from the government is thought to be necessary even on the Bias planet, and the government isn't allowed to happily welsh on debts to the central bank. As for interests, it's a fact that the central bank gives its profits to the government, and one may think that interests paid by the government to the central bank is destined to be returned to the government anyway, but that won't be always the case: if the central bank suffers losses because of helicopter money, the interests payed by the government won't be returned to the government because they don't remain as profits. Even the government shouldn't be allowed not to pay promised interests.

-Hypothesizer

The government may issue interest-free bonds in collusion with the central bank.

-Rebutter

It may, and it's quite likely to do so, but that's another issue. I said that bonds bought by the central bank don't automatically mean no necessity for the government to pay interests: interest-free bonds are interest-free because they are interest-free, not because the central bank bought them.

-Hypothesizer

Well, for monetary financing to be helicopter money, the bonds have to be perpetual bonds with no maturity date. Just buying normal government bonds isn't helicopter money, but buying bonds and not requiring repayments for ever is no different from just giving away money. . . . But 'perpetual bond' sounds bogus . . .. A debt the borrower doesn't have to pay back isn't a debt at all: it's a self-contradiction.

-Rebutter

In fact, it doesn't have to be explicitly perpetual bonds: if the central bank eternally continues to buy new bonds in order to let the government repay matured bonds, that's almost the same thing. Of course, it isn't exactly the same thing because the central bank retains at least the nominal option to stop buying new bonds. However, if the central bank doesn't have any actual option or any intention to do so, it's practically the same thing.

-Hypothesizer

And will the central bank insist that it isn't helicopter money? Dirty fellows . . .

Besides, whether the central bank buys government bonds directly or indirectly, the central bank is already buying government bonds in QE. Government bonds are just temporarily going through the hands of financial institutions. Isn't it monetary financing?

-Rebutter

If government bonds go through the hands of financial institutions just for formality's sake, it will be effectively already monetary financing, whatever the central bank or the government insists.

-Hypothesizer

How can we judge whether it's just for formality's sake?

-Rebutter

If financial institutions buy government bonds only because they expect that the central bank will buy those bonds at higher prices, that will be monetary financing.

-Hypothesizer

Ah, that is, the central bank is forcing financial institutions to buy government bonds, not buying government bonds that have been naturally bought by financial institutions.

-Rebutter

Well, financial institutions are being happily forced because they get profits, but I understand what you mean.

How Is Helicopter Money Related to Monetary Financing

-Hypothesizer

Helicopter money isn't always monetary financing even if monetary financing is the principal way of helicopter money, is it?

-Rebutter

When the central bank buys assets at higher prices from financial institutions in QE, it's effectively giving away money to those financial institutions. That will be very helicopter money, whatever the central bank claims.

-Hypothesizer

So, QE is already scattering implicit helicopter money.

And one time monetary financing isn't helicopter money, but permanent monetary financing is.

-Rebutter

That's our understanding.

What is the real risk of monetary financing?

-Hypothesizer

There are people who promote monetary financing and people who warn against monetary financing. Which is correct?

-Rebutter

Ah, . . .

-Hypothesizer

Ah?

-Rebutter

An important unpredictable factor is irrational reactions by people. After all, the result depends on vague so-called 'credibility' of the monetary system people feel: usual warning is that the credibility of the monetary system would be damaged.

-Hypothesizer

Ah, that usual vague claim. . . . Doesn't that mean that people are just ignorant? What promoters of monetary financing claim is that monetary financing isn't a problem. If that's so, doesn't just educating people so prevent the damage to the so-called 'credibility'?

-Rebutter

In fact, the economy is moved on the base of reactions by ignorant people. Theories based on the supposition that people have been enlightened may be interesting as thought experiments, but can't be expected to represent the reality.

-Hypothesizer

Ah, after all, if ignorant people react irrationally, even if theories by promoters of monetary financing are basically correct, problems will happen.

-Rebutter

We will have to suppose that people are ignorant and will act irrationally.

-Hypothesizer

I understand that inflation will happen. But, if the value of money becomes half, it doesn't matter if each of people has proportionally double amount of money. Nobody loses anything. But why should hyperinflation happen? Why does the value of money have to become 1/10, 1/100, 1/1000, or whatever?

-Rebutter

Detailed mechanisms aside, because, in short, 'the credibility' is damaged, and people overreacts. As far as the economic system depends on the vague 'credibility', problems will happen if people doubt the 'credibility' because of ignorance, beliefs in intuitions, whims, or whatever.

-Hypothesizer

Isn't people who warn that monetary financing will damage the 'credibility' just inciting the damage of 'credibility'?

-Rebutter

That's a chicken-or-egg question. Even if you refrain from the warning, others will continue the warning, and the damage of the 'credibility' will happen. So, it follows that after all, you should warn as a honest duty, because it really happens.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm . . .

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2017-04-30

5: Is QE OK?, Part Two

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Do Liabilities Exceeding Assets Matter for the Central Bank?

-Hypothesizer

What do you mean by "The central bank might not care if it suffers large amount of losses, or it even might intend to suffer losses."?

-Rebutter

I mean what that sentence literally says.

-Hypothesizer

. . . Even the central bank will get to have liabilities exceeding assets if it suffers a large amount of losses, won't it?

-Rebutter

It certainly will. That's mathematically inevitable.

-Hypothesizer

Doesn't that matter?

-Rebutter

I don't understand how that matters. . . . If an entity can pay debts by the appointed days, it doesn't default, and nobody will be troubled. For a private company, excessive liabilities are deadly because nobody will probably lend it money any more.

-Hypothesizer

So, it will default.

-Rebutter

On the other hand, the central bank never defaults because it can lend itself any amount of money by issuing new banknotes.

-Hypothesizer

Well, so, excessive liabilities don't matter at all if the entity can borrow money as necessary?

-Rebutter

I don't understand why they matter.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm . . .

-Rebutter

Don't misunderstand. As banknotes are debts for the central bank, issuing banknotes doesn't distinguish the central bank's liabilities at all, but anyway, the central bank will never default.

-Hypothesizer

I understand that it will never default, but does that mean that nobody will be troubled?

-Rebutter

I just don't understand why somebody has to be troubled. If somebody has to be troubled, please teach me the mechanism.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm . . .

Let's Think of Helicopter Money

-Rebutter

You have heard of helicopter money, don't you?

-Hypothesizer

Yes, I do. It really just scatters money.

-Rebutter

Let's suppose that the central bank really scatters banknotes. As considering interactions between countries complicates things, let's suppose that our country is completely isolated from the rest of the world. We understand that things can be different for open countries, but that supposition will be a meaningful base for discussion.

-Hypothesizer

OK.

-Rebutter

Suppose that those banknotes are scattered so that the proportion of money possessed by each entity in the country to the whole amount of money in the country doesn't change.

-Hypothesizer

Well, for example, when there are only three entities, EA, EB, and EC, and they had 100 dollars, 50 dollars, and 10 dollars, respectively, the central bank gives away 100 dollars, 50 dollars, and 10 dollars to them, respectively.

-Rebutter

Yes. Supposing that the central bank's previous net worth was 0 dollars, now, the central bank has 160 dollars of excessive liabilities.

-Hypothesizer

So it seems.

-Rebutter

Then, who is being troubled?

-Hypothesizer

Well, . . . doesn't an inflation happen?

-Rebutter

It may or may not. It isn't simple as that as the whole amount of money doubled, the money will be devalued half. However, let's suppose that the money has been devalued half for the sake of argument. Then, who is being troubled?

-Hypothesizer

Well, although the value of the monetary unit has become half, as everyone has a double amount of money, nobody seems to have any profit or loss. Just the monetary unit has changed.

-Rebutter

So, nobody is troubled although the central bank is in excessive liabilities.

-Hypothesizer

As helicopter money is intrinsically a policy that causes losses to the central bank, if the central bank scatters helicopter money, it is certainly intentionally suffering losses.

What Does the Net Worth of the Central Bank Mean?

-Hypothesizer

Well, I heard somebody say that the money of the central bank is the money of the people of the country, and losses of the central bank are losses of the people. Is that incorrect?

-Rebutter

In the isolated country model, the central bank lost the money to the rest of the country, which is the people of the country.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm, that is, the people lost the money in the balance sheet of the central bank, but they got the same amount of money in the balance sheets of individuals. As a whole, the people didn't suffer losses or gain profits at all.

-Rebutter

In the isolated country model, the excessive liabilities of the central bank just mean that that money has been transferred to the accounts of individuals.

-Hypothesizer

So, they aren't particularly problems?

-Rebutter

In the isolated country model, as a loss of the central bank is a gain of the people, as a whole, I think, they aren't problems. However, how the money is distributed is important. We supposed that the proportion of money possessed by each entity in the country to the whole amount of money in the country doesn't change in the previous example. Otherwise, some people will suffer losses in inflation.

-Hypothesizer

If we simplify that doubling the whole amount of money directly devalues the money half (I know that isn't the case), the whole amount of money doesn't matter, but the distribution of the money does.

-Rebutter

And in a open country model, if the central bank lost money to people of foreign countries, that's another story.

-Hypothesizer

At least, it seems that the central bank's excessive liabilities themselves don't particularly matter although they may be manifestation of some underlying problems.

What Would Be Done to the Central Bank's Excessive Liabilities?

-Hypothesizer

So, would the central bank's excessive liabilities be left as they are?

-Rebutter

According to this document, that doesn't seem the case. That document says that as excessive liabilities harm the central bank's reputation and credibility, the government would fill the losses.

-Hypothesizer

'Harming reputation and credibility' is a vague concept. . . . In short, people are just ignorant enough not to understand that the central bank's liabilities exceeding assets don't matter, aren't they?

-Rebutter

I couldn't find any theory that demonstrates that the central bank's excessive liabilities matter beyond just vaguely harming the central bank's reputation and credibility.

The Central Bank Is Already Scattering Helicopter Money

-Hypothesizer

I noticed that the central bank's losses in QE is very helicopter money in effect. For example, suppose that the central bank buys an asset at 100 dollars and sells the asset at 50 dollars. The central bank did a complicated thing, but in short, it just gave away 50 dollars!

-Rebutter

There is a difference between openly giving away and being forced to give away, but the result seems the same. Anyway, the fairness of the distribution of money is the issue.

-Hypothesizer

Or distributing proportionally may be ineffective just devaluing money. Rather handing money to only people who are willing to buy things seems effective.

-Rebutter

That may be so. As far as I see, QE isn't thought to have been very effective, and not handing money to right people seems the cause.

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2017-04-23

4: Is QE OK?, Part One

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QE looks suspicious

-Hypothesizer

Some countries on the Bias planet are doing QE, which is quantitative easing.

-Rebutter

Ah-ha.

-Hypothesizer

QE looks quite suspicious. Is it OK?

-Rebutter

Being just asked whether it is OK, I can't answer such a vague question. What's suspicious about it?

-Hypothesizer

It seems to just be scattering money. Isn't someone getting some undue profits?

-Rebutter

It isn't just scattering money; the central bank buys assets in financial markets. There is a big difference there.

-Hypothesizer

What's the difference?

What Happens in QE?

-Rebutter

To know the difference, we have to know what happens in QE.

-Hypothesizer

Yes, I want to know it. Let me know it immediately!

-Rebutter

. . . Well, for example, suppose an insurance company has 100 dollars worth of government bonds.

-Hypothesizer

OK.

-Rebutter

The central bank buys the government bonds from the insurance company. As the insurance company doesn't have any account in the central bank (note that commercial banks have accounts in the central bank, but insurance companies don't), the insurance company receives the payment of the government bonds as a deposit against a commercial bank, which instead receives 100 dollars as a deposit against the central bank, which is a central bank reserve.

For the insurance company, -100 (the government bonds) +100 (the claim against the commercial bank as the deposit) = 0 dollars.
For the commercial bank, -100 (the debt to the insurance company as the deposit) + 100 (the claim against the central bank as the reserve) = 0 dollars.
For the central bank, +100 (the government bonds) -100 (the debt against the commercial bank as the reserve) = 0 dollars.

-Hypothesizer

Oh, so, QE doesn't change the net worth for anybody. However, is that meaningful? I mean, the insurance company got the commercial bank deposit instead of the government bonds, and the commercial bank has got to hold the debt to the insurance company as the deposit and the claim against the central bank as the reserve. So what? Is that good for the economy?

-Rebutter

So, it seems.

-Hypothesizer

Well, so the types of assets in which somebody holds his or her assets are important. Do they mean that somebody who holds government bonds won't buy anything, but somebody who holds money would buy something? Is that the aim?

-Rebutter

I don't know the detailed mechanism in which QE is supposed to improve the economy, but probably, such an effect is an element of the mechanism.

So, Is Nobody Getting Undue Profits in QE?

-Hypothesizer

So, is nobody getting undue profits in QE?

-Rebutter

Whether undue or not, there are people who are getting profits. As the central bank buys assets in large amounts, the prices of those assets would get higher. So there are people who make profits from trading those assets.

-Hypothesizer

Ah, that would be so. But isn't somebody suffering wanton losses?

-Rebutter

Whether wanton or not, there are people who could suffer losses. If inflation is realized as intended in QE, people who hold assets as money will suffer losses. And workers or pensioners who don't get matching raises in their incomes will suffer losses too.

-Hypothesizer

I thought so.

Is QE Sustainable?

-Hypothesizer

Another suspicion on QE is that it isn't sustainable.

-Rebutter

If you ask whether the central bank can continue QE for ever, it might be able to do so as far as the government continues to issue large amounts of new bonds: the central bank continues to buy new government bonds that have been bought by, for example, insurance companies.

-Hypothesizer

So, all the government bonds or most of them would be held by the central bank.

-Rebutter

They would be so, as a possibility, but of course QE isn't meant to be continued for a long time.

-Hypothesizer

So, the central bank has to eventually sell assets it has bought. Aren't there troubles when it does that?

When the central bank sells those assets, isn't it natural or even inevitable that the prices of those assets fall? I mean, selling assets would cause the prices of those assets to fall, wouldn't it?

-Rebutter

First, the central bank can hold those government bonds until the maturities.

-Hypothesizer

I heard that the Japanese central bank is buying government bonds at prices over the face values.

-Rebutter

In that case, the central bank can't avoid losses by holding government bonds until the maturities.

-Hypothesizer

And even if it doesn't suffer losses in nominal values, it will suffer losses in real values because inflation is high because of QE.

-Rebutter

That would be so.

-Hypothesizer

And as for assets that aren't bonds, it can't take that strategy.

-Rebutter

That will be so. However, on the other hand, it may be able to hold those assets long enough for the prices of those assets to get higher.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm, . . . as the central bank bought assets at prices that are artificially raised by QE, it's doubtful that the central bank can sell those assets at the same or higher prices. I don't say it never can, but it seems a wishful thinking if it believes it can.

-Rebutter

As for stocks, if we assume a market that keeps growing as a whole, it may escape losses; as for bonds, I don't know how it can avoid some losses.

-Hypothesizer

Possibly, it can suffer large amount of losses!

-Rebutter

It's a possibility.

-Hypothesizer

If the central bank suffers a large amount of losses, what would happen then?

-Rebutter

The central bank might not care if it suffers a large amount of losses, or it even might intend to suffer losses.

-Hypothesizer

Huh?

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2017-04-16

3: Are Inconvertible Banknotes Really Claims Against the Central Bank?

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Title: 3: Are Inconvertible Banknotes Really Claims Against the Central Bank?

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What Can We Claim for Inconvertible Banknotes?

-Hypothesizer

Although I understand that convertible banknotes are claims against the central bank, I'm not totally convinced that inconvertible banknotes are claims against the central bank, for, what can I get in exchange for a banknote?

-Rebutter

Ah, I understand your question.

-Hypothesizer

A typical explanation is that a banknote, which is just a trivial piece of paper, retains its value because people believe in the value. I understand that, and I don't deny the value. However, for an inconvertible banknote to be called a claim, I have to able to claim something in exchange for the banknote. What is that something? I don't accept an answer like "You can get another banknote of the same value for the banknote." Such an exchange is meaningless except when the banknote gets broken or something: I don't have banknotes for such rare cases.

-Rebutter

I understand your question.

-Hypothesizer

. . . And?

-Rebutter

And what?

-Hypothesizer

Don't you have an answer?

-Rebutter

Well, as I have searched for an established theory for that question, I couldn't find any satisfactory one.

My theory is that we can claim a right to demand the central bank to do something for us to get a thing that amounts to the face value of the banknote.

-Hypothesizer

Hmm, I understand a little, but am not fully convinced. Isn't that right too vague? What do you mean by 'do something'? What would the central bank do for us?

-Rebutter

For example, if a shop refuses to give a bottle of tea in exchange for a one dollar banknote, the central bank would order the shop to give the bottle to us.

-Hypothesizer

Really? Would a person of the central bank come to the shop and make the shop clerk to give the bottle to us?

-Rebutter

Whether a person of the central bank would come in person to the shop or not, the central bank will cooperate with the government to prevent the spread of such refusals of banknotes.

-Hypothesizer

Still, it's an unreliable right. As the central bank doesn't decide the price of the bottle, the shop can demand 100 dollars worth of banknotes for the small bottle of tea.

-Rebutter

Although the central bank doesn't decide the price of each item of each shop, it can control the values of banknotes by its policies.

-Hypothesizer

Ah, I understand that. I won't complain if the values of banknotes are retained. The price of each item won't be the central bank's responsibility.

Still, in fact, historically, hyper inflations have caused rapid devaluations of banknotes.

-Rebutter

There is a room for interpretations there: whether we have the right to demand the central bank to prevent rapid devaluations of banknotes or we don't have such a right at all.

-Hypothesizer

Don't hyper inflations happen because we don't have such a right?

-Rebutter

It isn't necessarily so. Claims don't mean that they are to be answered without fail. The central bank may have just failed to fulfill the obligation.

-Hypothesizer

Ah, thinking of it, that's is the same with other claims. We may not be able take back the money for our bank deposits if the bank gets broke.

-Rebutter

If we don't have the right to demand the central bank to prevent rapid devaluations of banknotes, it follows that the central bank can just scatter banknotes and cause hyper inflations.

-Hypothesizer

Still, the claim of banknotes seems too vague and too unreliable. Inflations, if not hyper inflations, really happen, or the central bank is trying to make them happen.

-Rebutter

You can interpret the inflation target as the pledge by the central bank. If you don't agree with the inflation rate, or you don't believe that the central bank will keep the pledge, you should hold your assets in other forms such as lands and gold.

However, I agree that the claim of banknotes is quite vague and unreliable. Its vagueness and unreliability is represented in the fact that the central bank won't be legally punished for failing to fulfill its obligation.

Main body END

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2017-04-09

0: The Table of Contents of the Series, 'To Disentangle Confusing Terms or Discourses'

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2: To Disentangle 'Money Creation' or 'Credit Creation'

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A typical discourse is unnecessarily complicated, without touching the essence of deposit. Money always emerges from nothing, and is always 0 sum.

Topics


About: money

The table of contents of this article


Starting Context



Target Context


  • The reader will understand what 'money creation' or 'credit creation' is.

Orientation


There are some articles about that inconvertible banknotes are claims against the central bank (here and here).


Main Body

Stage Direction
Here is Special-Student-7 in a room in an old rather isolated house surrounded by some mountains in Japan.


1: What Is a Typical Discourse About 'Money Creation' or 'Credit Creation'?


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
A typical discourse about 'money creation' is like this.

There is a reserve requirement ratio, RR, which means that the commercial bank has to have at least deposits * RR of currency (banknotes or coins) in reserve in case depositors withdraw some of their deposits as currency. For example, RR = 0.1.

A person PA deposits 100 dollars in currency to a commercial bank BA.
BA lends 100 - 100 * 0.1 = 90 dollars in currency to a person PB.
PB deposits 90 dollars in currency to a commercial bank BB.
BB lends 90 - 90 * 0.1 = 81 dollars in currency to a person PC.
PC deposits 81 dollars in currency to a commercial bank BC.
BC lends 81 - 81 * 0.1 = 72.9 dollars in currency to a person PD.
And so on.

The sum of deposits is 100 + 100 * (1 - 0.1) + 100 * (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) + 100 * (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.1) + . . ..

It's an infinite series, and equals 100 / 0.1 = 1000.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Ah-ha . . .. I don't say that's incorrect, but I wonder why they have to make such an unrealistic, unnecessarily complicated explanation. It's unrealistic because loans don't have to be and in fact usually aren't made by giving currency to borrowers: borrowers get the money as deposits.


2: This Is Our Explanation


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
So, our explanation is this.

A person PA deposits 100 dollars in currency to a commercial bank BA.
BA lends 100 / 0.1 - 100 = 900 dollars in a deposit to PA.
Finish!

It's 900 because BA has 100 dollars in currency, the maximum deposits allowed is 100 / 0.1 = 1000 dollars, BA already had 100 dollars of deposits, and so, the 1000 - 100 dollars are the additional maximum deposits BA can create.

There is no necessity for any infinite number of depositors, any infinite number of commercial banks, any infinite number of lending, or any infinite series.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
The maximum amount of deposits is not determined because of the infinite series, but because the reserve requirement directly dictates the maximum amount of deposits: 0.1 = 100 / 1000 is the very definition of the reserve requirement ratio, and 100 / 0.1 = 1000 is just a variation of the definition. We don't need to compute the infinite series to get the maximum amount of deposits.


3: Why Such an Unnecessarily Complicated Explanation?


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
Why do they make such an unnecessarily complicated explanation?

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Well, I guess, they stand on the premise that deposits have to be created by depositors' depositing currency. However, that premise is utterly against the essence of deposit. I think, the explanation required is what clarifies the essence of deposit, not what is based on a premise against the essence of deposit.


4: What Is 'Deposit'?


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
So, what is 'deposit'?

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
The deposit is the depositor's claim against the bank. From the view of the bank, it's a debt to the depositor.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
So, movements of currency aren't essential in creation and disappearance of deposits.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
That's right. A typical creation of deposit happens when a bank lends money to a borrower.

For example, assume that the bank lends 100 dollars to the borrower. The bank gets a claim of 100 dollars against the borrower as a loan. On the other hand, the borrower gets a claim of 100 dollars against the bank as a deposit. Note, in such a case, no currency will be handed from either side to the other side.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
I notice that the bank could lend any amount of money at once even if it had no currency at all, if there were no regulations.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Yes, it could.


5: Why Does Money Emerge from Nothing?


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
What typically confuses people will be that money seems to emerge from nothing. In the previous example, why do 100 dollars proliferate to 1100 dollars? Where did the 1000 dollars come from? Isn't it just a fraud?

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
First, let us clarify the term, 'money'. The concept of money includes currency and deposits. So, your use of the term, 'money', is correct. Deposits are money, and money proliferated from 100 (currency) dollars to 100 (currency) + 1000 (deposits) = 1100 dollars.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
In fact, money is essentially something that emerges from nothing. So, if we assume that there are no regulations, any amount of money can be created from nothing if participants of transactions agree.

The 100 dollars currency didn't increase. The issue is that 0 dollar deposits became 1000 dollars deposits.

In fact, the 1000 dollars deposits emerged in this mathematical equation.

0 = +1000 - 1000

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Yes. Not mysterious at all.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
The plus amount is the claim that the depositor has against the bank and the minus amount is the debt that the bank has to the depositor; the net worth as a whole is always 0.

We just split 0 to +1000 and -1000, and counted only the plus amount. The trick is that the minus amount is forgotten. That way, we can create any amount of money from 0. To think of it, as the deposit is a claim, there is always the same amount of debt on the other side.

Currency is also a claim that the holder has against the central bank. So, its essence is the same with deposits.


6: The Amount of Deposits Isn't Limited by the Amount of Currency


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
There is another unrealistic explanation in the typical discourse. The typical discourse says as if the amount of currency limits the amount of deposits, but that doesn't seem to fit the reality.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Oh?

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
Currency is not mostly really held as banknotes or coins, but as a deposit of the commercial bank to the central bank, which can be increased or decreased on demand by the commercial bank by selling some assets to or buying some assets from the central bank.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
'deposit of the commercial bank to the central bank' is not exactly currency, but as the commercial bank can anytime exchange the deposit to the central bank to currency, the commercial bank does not need to hold the reserve as currency.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
Yes. And the commercial bank adjust the deposit to the central bank to meet the reserve rate.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
I see.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
The amount of deposits is determined by market forces. For example, if burrowers don't want to burrow much money, deposits can't be increased much.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
So, the amount of reserve doesn't determine the amount of deposits, but the amount of deposits determine the amount of reserve.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
It seems so.


7: Let's Look at the Whole Picture of the Example


Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
Let us apply the above knowledge to the previous example.

First, a person PA deposits 100 dollars in currency to a commercial bank BA.

For PA, he or she lost the claim against the central bank as the currency (-100), and got the claim against BA as the deposit (+100). So, -100 +100 = 0.

For BA, it got the claim against the central bank as the currency (+100), and got the debt to PA as the deposit (-100). So, +100 -100 = 0.

Second, BA lends 900 dollars in a deposit to PA.

For PA, he or she got the debt against BA as the loan (-900), and got the claim against BA as the deposit (+900). So, -900 +900 = 0.

For BA, it got the claim against PA as the loan (+900), and got the debt against PA as the deposit (-900). So, +900 -900 = 0.

So, the net worth did not increase or decrease as a whole or for anyone.

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Of course. As nobody did productive work, the net worth can't increase. And people usually won't do what are just losses to themselves.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
Then how does the commercial bank make profits?

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
It makes profits by the split between the interest rate of the loan and the interest rate of the deposit.

Special-Student-7-Hypothesizer
Ah-ha, . . . interest also emerges from nothing, I presume?

Special-Student-7-Rebutter
Yes, interest is a claim that the lender has against the borrower and a debt that the borrower has to the lender. It can emerge from nothing because it's 0 as a whole.


References


  • Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, and Ryland Thomas. (2014 Q1). Money creation in the modern economy. Retrieved from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf
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1: To Disentangle Confusing Terms or Discourses

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Main body START

We See Lots of Confusing Terms and Discourses

-Hypothesizer

As I read some documents since we have come to the Bias planet, I see lots of confusing terms and discourses.

-Rebutter

For example?

-Hypothesizer

For example, 'serverless computing'.

-Rebutter

What does that mean?

-Hypothesizer

That seems to mean a computers system model in which servers exist in the cloud, functions are deployed on those servers, end users access those functions, and end users are billed by the measure of how much resources those accesses required.

-Rebutter

Huh? In short, servers exist. Does someone call a system in which servers exist 'serverless'?

-Hypothesizer

Actually he or she does.

-Rebutter

Hmm, . . . it's confusing.

-Hypothesizer

It's as if one calls a white box a black box.

-Rebutter

How does such a thing happen?

-Hypothesizer

Perhaps, 'serverless' really means 'the end user is unaware of the existence of servers'. So, it's as though that servers don't exist from the end user's perspective.

-Rebutter

When I am the end user, it's I who decide whether I should be aware of the existence of servers. Why does someone have to say that I shouldn't be unaware of the existence of servers?

-Hypothesizer

Certainly, it's none of his or her business.

-Rebutter

For me, it's natural and rather inevitable to be aware of the existence of servers because otherwise where do those functions exist? Do I have to imagine functions floating in vacuum?

-Hypothesizer

. . . Maybe, 'serverless' means 'servers aren't owned by the end user'. So, 'servers-not-owned-by-the-end-user computing' would be more appropriate.

-Rebutter

'Not being owned' is very different from 'not existing'. . . . I understand that Earthians don't like such a long name, but I guess the another name mentioned in the Wikipedia page, 'function as a service (FaaS)', will be enough.

-Hypothesizer

Many Earthians love inaccurate terms like 'serverless computing' because they think that such terms have more impacts.

-Rebutter

I understand that it's a manifestation of a tendency: to prioritize to fawn on the intuition over to be accurate.

-Hypothesizer

As an another example, I read some discourses about 'money creation' or 'credit creation'.

-Rebutter

What's wrong with them?

-Hypothesizer

Actually, I don't say that they are incorrect, but I say they don't touch the essence of the issue, tell about unrealistic cases, and unnecessarily cause confusion.

-Rebutter

Ah-ha.

We Should Dissolve Wonder

-Hypothesizer

When I read typical discourses about 'money creation', I feel like I was tricked.

-Rebutter

You feel like you were tricked because your understanding isn't enough: the whole of your understandings don't fit together in your head. It's a sign that your system of understandings needs a revision.

-Hypothesizer

In other words, it's a chance to improve our system of understandings.

-Rebutter

The same applies to so-called wonder. You feel wonder because some new information doesn't fit into your system of understandings. It's a chance to radically improve our system of understandings.

-Hypothesizer

So, we shouldn't leave wonder as it is: we should dissolve wonder.

Main body END

References

  • Wikipedia. (2017/04/05). Serverless computing. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serverless_computing
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